Interpretive Summaries

Projection of Industry Paradigms into the Future 

23 days ago

Interpretive Summary: Projection of Industry Paradigms into the Future

December, 2024 | by Clayton Gill

Leading poultry scientists, major industry suppliers, and a top global market research firm teamed up to project "paradigms" of the poultry industry into the future. The study team focused on key patterns of poultry industry development likely to shape the next two decades or more. The paradigms included genetics, precision farming technology, feed ingredients and formulation, and poultry meat processing. 

Study team members represented the University of Arkansas, University of Georgia, Aviagen, Evonik Corporation, Hy-Line International, Tyson Foods, and IRI (Circana). 

How could each of these paradigms advance to meet the future demands of a dynamic global market for a safe, cost-effective, sustainable protein source? And, given known and unknown challenges, how could the poultry industry continue to satisfy changing consumer preferences and regulatory requirements.

The study team predicted that both scientific advancements and new technologies -- including applied artificial intelligence -- would play a big role in future broiler and egg production.

In their report, team members acknowledged the unavoidable pressure of global population growth. Current trends pointed to a global human population of 9.2-9.7 billion by 2050, an increase of at least a billion from the 2024 count. 

"For this reason," the study team stated, "it is crucial to improve the efficiency of protein production in a sustainable way."

The study team noted the broiler industry's "remarkable advancements" during the 25-year span of 1985-2010, when body weight increased 70% and feed efficiency improved more than 50%. Significant advancements applied to the egg industry as well, including the advent of cage-free and branded eggs. Coupled with the rapid pace of globalized trade, poultry industry growth boomed worldwide. 

Broiler and egg industry advancements followed innovations in breeding, nutrition, biosecurity, disease prevention and control, and house environmental management. These advancements were all in response to the worldwide drive for greater cost efficiency as well as the "emerging challenges" posed by changing markets, supply chains, and consumer perceptions and expectations. 

By combining their diverse disciplines and expertise, members of the study team sought to provide insight into the future of key components of the poultry industry. 

In this study, team members admitted that trying to analyze ever-changing consumer expectations and behavior was like "seeing through the kaleidoscope." They zeroed in on issues involving "increased health consciousness, concern with product quality and safety, ethic perceptions, environmental friendliness, animal welfare, social consciousness, and price."

They noted that "external factors," such as the COVID-19 global pandemic, also altered consumer behavior. For example, the pandemic boosted in-home cooking, which increased home kitchen appliance use. Thanks in part to the air fryer, purchase of chicken wings increased 14% in a one-year period. The study team referred to home appliances as "innovation platforms" for future products.

Inaccurate perceptions of animal welfare have influenced consumer behavior in a growing number of markets worldwide, which has had effects on farming practices. For example, survey research indicated that only 3% of participants knew that broilers were raised cage-free and many incorrectly believed they were grown using hormones. 

The sustainability of poultry production also was a key parameter for the study team, referring to estimates of livestock production accounting for roughly 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Of these emissions, cattle were responsible for more than 60%, swine about 10%, and poultry about 11%. However, poultry demonstrated the greatest gains in reducing emissions.

Moving "from Mendelism to genomics" was how the study team characterized the genetic paradigm. The publication of the chicken genome 20 years ago enabled breeders to develop selection programs to accelerate improvement in different parts of the production curve. They were better able to optimize feed efficiency, reproduction, behavioral traits, disease-related traits, and most recently welfare-related traits such as bone strength and gait. 

The "smart" poultry farms of the future, the study team suggested, are likely to use vision-devices combined with artificial intelligence to process "big data" for real-time collection: "These advancements would enable tracking of bird movements, navigation of housing systems, utilization of nests, feeding and drinking spaces, and predict or notify about potential health issues." Current manual animal welfare evaluation would become part of an automated farm data management strategy.

In the future, poultry product markets will be even more segmented -- “no antibiotic ever,” “all vegetable diets,” slow-growing programs, GMO-free diets, organic, free-range, diets for "designer" meat and egg products (for example, with extra omega fat content). To meet the nutrition requirements of the "niche birds" required, diet formulation will shift from metabolizable energy (ME) to net energy (NE), which already dominates swine diet design.  

The study team noted that diets will continue to include current ingredients but also insect products and a greater range of synthetic amino acids, enzymes, and other additives: "The use of... probiotics, prebiotics (such as mannan-oligosaccharides and beta-glucans), postbiotics, phytogenic compounds (such as oregano oil and saponins), trace elements, and short and medium chain fatty acids to help with gut health and improve live performance will continue to be refined."

"While these products cannot replace antibiotics," the study team stated, "they can help the birds to cope with different stressors as well as assist with their recovery."

Looking ahead for poultry meat processing, study team members pointed to work addressing myopathies currently afflicting the industry -- woody breast, white striping, and spaghetti meat. 

"These myopathies are issues around the world that have major economic implications, based on 10 to 40% incidence of moderate/severe cases.... Mitigation strategies should involve genetic and live production factors, including nutritional strategies."

The study team noted applied research focused on technology for detection and identification of meat quality irregularities. Also, research was underway using virtual reality technology to train plant personnel in deboning and other work, which could eventually be done by robots guided by remote operators.

What does this study mean for producers?

  • Expect at least a billion more potential broiler and egg consumers by 2050

  • Remember the poultry industry continues to be driven by ever-changing consumer demand, which producers can continue to satisfy

  • Be proud of the industry's strong record of safe, cost-efficient, sustainable protein production 

  • Continue to educate consumers about poultry science, technology, sustainability, and animal welfare

The full paper, titled "Poultry industry paradigms: connecting the dots" can be found in Applied Poultry Research and online here.

DOI: 10.1016/j.japr.2022.100310



#InterpretiveSummary #GeneticParameter #PoultryIndustry

Statistics
0 Favorited
176 Views
1 Files
0 Shares
1 Downloads
Attachment(s)
pdf file
PSA-IS_2024-11_Industry-paradigm-projections.docx.pdf   92 KB   1 version
Uploaded - 01-17-2025

Related Entries and Links

No Related Resource entered.